2024 Election Exit Polls Analysis

In the Midst of "We're so back!" I Found Within Me, a "It's Over"

Before we get into the exit polls, let’s take a look at the map. Here are the maps for 2020 and 2016 if you would like to compare.

The most striking difference compared to 2016 and 2020 is that the Southwest has turned red again. California is only blue on the coast in 2020, and Texico has gone red. Miami also went red, and Florida in general is no longer a swing state. The only “Democrat Regions” left are the Black Belt and New England.

This was already a trend in 2020, the Democratic vote became increasingly concentrated in fewer but more urban counties. But the dissolution of the Democrat vote in Southern Texas is jarring. It is partially due to Hispanics voting more red this year, which I’ll get to later, and it is partially due to this aforementioned urban concentration of the Democrat vote. It is even visible in the Northeast. More counties in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York went red. I was most surprised by Nassau going red. The Democrat counties are more tightly wrapped around I-95.

Before I get into the exit polls, it’s worth mentioning that the poll data right now is limited and we’ll probably get much clearer pictures of it later when everything has been collected and processed. Currently the exit polls only measure 10 ‘Key States’ — Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, and Pennsylvania. All of which went Republican, of course. AP votecast is promoting slightly different results which I will bring up periodically.

Whites and Blacks voted for Trump at a similar percent as they had in 2020 (41/58 and 87/12 respectively). Asians shifted somewhat right. Latinos are the big outlier. In 2020, Latinos voted 65/32 in favor of Biden. This is in spite of Trump returning to a focus on anti-immigration. This election, they voted 52/46 in favor of Biden. I will, for the time being, assume that this is accurate, although I do remember in 2020 that many people parroted inflated statistics about the Latino vote red after the election. Latinos did not go 38% for Trump in ‘20. Not sure where this rumor comes from, I see it in a lot of news articles but not in the official 2020 Exit Polls. Even Latino men didn’t go 38% for Trump in 2020. I suspect that the total Latino vote probably is more blue than what is being represented, as it leaves out the 1/4 of Hispanic Americans who live in California, as well as Hispanics in the Northeast (compare this to the Hard-R states not polled — these states have few Hispanics).

AP Votecast puts the Hispanic vote at 35% Trump in 2020, and 42% Trump in 2024. So, only about the same as what Bush got with Hispanics. AP Votecast also gives Harris a majority among Latino men, 50/47. Quite different from the Exit Polls, and this may be related to the fact that APV surveys all 50 states (compared to only 10 that the exit polls measure). The AP Votecast results haven’t become fully available yet, but once the dataset becomes available maybe expect a part 2! Although APV’s survey does not suggest quite an exceptional Hispanic red vote, it is still higher than the past 2 elections.

One of my most popular articles is a defense of White Identitarianism, so I feel obliged to talk about this. People are seeing this and saying that White Identitarianism is a bust, that the fears we had in 2016 are no longer relevant. Well, I think we’ve all grown a bit since 2016 and can recognize that “demographics is destiny” is not merely referring to how races vote, but all of the criticisms I made towards a “Red LatinX Demographic” in the summer still hold up. Latin American Republicans are not Republicans for the sake of immigration, it is the exact opposite. They are Republicans for the sake of things like the economy, or 2A, or maybe some sort of social policy. And what the exit polls show is that the red wave was in large part a product of the perceived failure of the Biden-era economy.

The Economy proved to be a much more pertinent topic to voter opinion than immigration or abortion. Interestingly, “The state of democracy” beat out everything else, which suggests that a lot of Americans actually still do care a lot about January 6th. I’ll get back to the LatinX in a second, but it really shocks me to see just how much the media got wrong going into this election. J6 is still relevant to voters, but abortion is only moderately relevant. Young people and women shifted red. The suburbs shifted red. Considering that Chandala’s campaign was centered around appealing to young people, women, suburbanites, and abortionists, this goes to show just how awful the Harris campaign was.

Hispanics likely voted for Trump for the above reasons — like the plurality of Americans, they think the economy is doing rather poorly and they feel like their financial situation has declined (whether or not this is true is irrelevant).

However, I have a few pet theories as to why Hispanics are more generally moving away from the DNC. Firstly, it is the Insane Clown Party stuff. It’s kind of obvious at this point, but the GOP is becoming the party of the working class and of people who are perhaps less intellectually inclined. Obviously being the party of ruralites this was always a trend, but it has intensified in the past three elections. In 2024, the working class went for Trump while the middle and upper-middle class went for Kamala.

I will get into the college-educated element in the next segment, but Kamala also increased her vote share with college-educated people and particularly college-educated Whites. Trump, in turn, gained votes from the uneducated.

Secondly, the DNC is overstepping in its afro-latry. The pan-beige coalition of the 2016 DNC is breaking apart because since the Floyd riots Democrats have been fixated on Blackness. This is particularly problematic when ideas like reparations may require other minority groups — namely Hispanics, to pay Black people money for things their ancestors didn’t do (although they might be more likely to have slave-owning ancestors than your average White). This is perfectly rational behavior on behalf of Hispanics, they are leveraging their ethnic interests effectively and this does not suggest a permanent rightward trend of Hispanics so much as it just puts the ball in the court of the DNC.

The second big thing worth mentioning is the Jewish vote. Jews went overwhelmingly for Kamala this election, with a staggering 80% of Jews going D

The debacle in Palestine actually had a frontlash effect — Jews voted stronger for Democrats than they had in the past, despite the Democratic party getting sucked into the Israel-Palestine debate and a significant portion of the Democratic base going so far as to become single-issue pro-Palestine voters. This confirms the old finding that Jews are significantly more concerned about their biggest fans (White Evangelicals) than their biggest opponents (Muslims) on the world stage:

This may be explained by another question on the survey:

American Jews may mostly agree with the view that U.S. support for Israel under Biden was at an acceptable level. They consider the greater degree of rhetorical support for Israel that Trump offers as not worth the election of someone who they mistake for Adolf Hitler in their schizophrenic fever dreams. The Jewish blueshift was so strong that Jews actually beat out Black men in % Kamala. They also beat out atheists. Looks like the “Based Mischlings” stayed home posting on Twitter come election day. Or they wrote “Nietzschean Aryan Vitalist” on their exit polls when asked about religion. I’m just taking the piss… Do not send the Talmudic Network after me! Please!

Third object of concern — the White college-educated vote. College-educated Whites went more for Kamala than they did for Biden in 2020, despite Trump winning more of the overall vote. The college-educated have always been more Liberal for a few obvious reasons — they tend to be demographically younger, they are less rural (rural people don’t need college as often for the jobs they do) and academia is left-leaning, but what we are concerned about is the recent shift. I am thankful that Trump thinly held onto White college-educated men (47/50), but for women it is a different story (57/41). In my opinion, it was a blackpill that college educated Whites swung further left than in 2020, albeit entirely due to women. College-educated women seem to care a whole awful lot about abortion. I’ve watched some videos of guys interviewing students at relatively conservative universities and even the blonde pretty sorority girls have the same response: “I’m voting Kamala because uh abortion”. White college-educated men shifted left in 2020 and remained about the same in 2024, with a 3-point advantage for Trump over Biden/Kamala. In 2016 only 39% of CEWM voted for Hillary and a majority of CEWs voted for Trump (45/48). What happened?

Coronavirus played a significant role. Educated people were very loyal to the Coronavirus regime. I know, looking back on it it seems very retarded, but “college-educated” does not mean “good judgment” especially in an age where college is becoming less and less reliable a litmus test of cognitive ability. This also shifted the focus of American politics towards very ephemeral political issues. Politics became solely about your stance on coronavirus, and the educated class not only felt more pressure to “trust the science” but also had their white-collar work threatened less by the lockdowns. One of the more right-wing fields of skilled labor is in medicine, with higher paying medical professions tending to be more Republican, and the overall rate of Republicans (minus fields like Psychiatry which don’t require med school) was around half.

Academics in medicine have also been recorded as being around equal parts conservative and liberal, making them the second most conservative field behind business.

And this is not separating by race. Remember that a lot of doctors are from highly selected immigrant groups from Asia and sometimes Africa, groups which are very liberal in general. White medical professionals were probably significantly more right-wing than the average. But obviously it was groups like this that felt like they were on the “front line” of the war against Coronavirus that felt most insulted by the anti-masking and anti-lockdown rhetoric. It didn’t help that dissenting doctors could get in serious trouble for even hinting that maybe the whole masking thing was not as effective as people said it was. Most people would rather bluepill themselves on a falsehood than stay secretly redpilled if their livelihoods are at stake.

For a year or two after Trump’s defeat in 2020, issues kept coming up that continued to alienate CEWs, but were also not long-term political issues. January 6th came first. Remember that a lot of conservative Whites are dedicated to non-conservative principles that the U.S. was sort of founded on, and they felt like January 6th trampled on these sacred values. They are not radicalized enough to recognize just how laughably distant and incompatible Amerikwa is when compared to the vision of the Founders, so they still consider it important to be a good liberal (in the classical sense) in modern politics and have “decency” which Trump lacks. The vaccine debate dominated the first third or so of the Biden presidency — although Trump ironically had nothing to do with it, it did a lot of damage to the reputation of the political right from the perspective of CEWs. Anti-Vax was associated with crazy conspiracy theorists who put their kids in danger and had been DEBOONKED by wise science men. I don’t mean to attack anti-masking, election skepticism, or anti-vax here, I’m just giving the opinion of the above-average IQ demographic. I refrain from calling them midwits because frankly high-wits are more or less the same in their political views.

Another, related blackpill was a recent study on polygenic scores which found that smart people are more likely to be both socially and politically left-wing. Previous studies tended to suggest that smart people were more likely to be slightly Libertarian — in favor of free markets, but not socially conservative. Both of these are probably a result of the political environments both smart and less smart people need to succeed in — in the 1300s you would expect the smartest people in Europe to be Thomists, and the smartest people in China to be Confucians. Academia became dramatically more left-leaning in the post-war era and may have even been conservative prior to the early-mid 20th century. Just as the Chinese bureaucrat must rehearse Confucian texts verbatim in his examinations, the modern academic must rehearse libtardation in his essays. It makes it much easier to succeed as a liberal than as a conservative, but there was less pressure to have a certain set of economic views. Probably because people who are wealthy are also usually smarter, and people who are wealthy also don’t want to be raped by the tax man. But come this election, the upper middle class is apparently fine with Kamala’s radical plans like large unrealized capital gains taxes, health insurance for illegal immigrants, and and price controls. Trump’s economic nationalism is probably not popular among them either, but is very popular among working class voters who (fairly) view it as bringing back jobs. I think that tariffs are terrible policy for a democratic leader who only has a term limit of 4 years, because elections are mostly determined by how the economy looks from the ground level and tariffs tend to have negative short-term effects. But, Trump knows his base, and he knows that he needs large turnout from the working class, so I understand.

Intelligence is becoming increasingly correlated with left-wing views across the space of political topics. This needs to be stopped because the organs of society rely on intelligent people to function (duh), so it is always better to have more of them at your disposal. They also vote more reliably, and donate more. Republicans who may be very intelligent are also shying away from college due to low confidence in a college degree compared to democrats, which is a problem because college degrees are used as a litmus for competence in the jobs market. Also, colleges fund a lot of studies which influence public opinion. College might nosedive in prestige over the following decades, but for now it’s still very important in gaining power within the system and even if we ignore college it seems like decline in CEW vote for Republicans is partially related to a decline in average intelligence among White Republicans.

The one whitepill I can offer on this topic is that, even if Whites with college educations are becoming more left-leaning, it is possible that CEWs who studied honest and rigorous majors in college are still fairly right-leaning, because this is true for college faculty (and college faculty is likely to be far more left-wing than someone who simply studied that field in college. Also I think this specifically measured at elite unis, which are more liberal)

Buuut, my own on-the-ground experience tells me that the stereotypical Republican engineer is becoming less prevalent at least among new graduates. The hard sciences are becoming filled with autistic transbians and they will make sure that people who oppose their silliness are punished. Unfortunately people engaged in some of these silly mickey mouse majors are the ones who go to law school, and I am forced to agree with Banania’s take that wokeness is mostly the product of machinations in the field of law.

Also, if we zoom out to the big picture here, outside of just White people, the serious majors are becoming filled with East Asians and Indians, who are extremely liberal and will enforce Libtardation on White colleagues for reasons unrelated to their choice to go to college. It is possible that the increasing number of non-white highly liberal peers in these hard sciences made it very difficult to be a conservative post-2016 when political tensions skyrocketed. I know how it feels. I am in one of these fields myself, and it is extremely lonely being surrounded by Asian city-slicker Libtards.

Well, that’s really all there is to say about the election results. Mostly happy that Drumf won, because I think he is in a much better position to enact change than he was in 2016. But, I won’t pretend it’s all peaches and cream.

P.S. I am considering changing my publication’s name from “Sectionalism Archive” to “Kossina’s Smile”. My user display name will still be Sectionalism Archive, but my main publication will have its own name. What do you guys think?